“We have good news for democracy.” Thus spake Zardari, as he announced the ruling coalition’s decision to impeach President Musharraf. Let the games begin.
Four questions emerge immediately:
1. Will the President invoke Article 58-2(B) of the constitution and dissolve Parliament? The answer seems to be “depends”. Depends on Mr. Musharraf’s successor as army chief, Gen. Kayani’s willingness to align the army behind the President. Depends on what Washington has to say. More on this, later.
2. Will the impeachment be constitutional? The parliament can’t just impeach the president. The coalition needs to prepare “a charge sheet according to the Constitution which pins the parliament down to one or all of the following three presidential culpabilities: 1) unfitness to hold the office due to incapacity, 2) guilt of violating the Constitution, 3) gross misconduct”, says The Daily Times. The courts – currently laden with Musharraf appointees – might still have something to say.
3. Does the coalition have the numbers? There are concerns as to whether the ruling coalition will muster the 295 votes from a college of 442 (the two houses of parliament) needed to pass an impeachment resolution. The answer here is a maybe. There is much politicking ahead.
4. Finally, what has Washington to say of all of this? Syed Saleem Shahzad of the Asia Times Online suggests that the US is unwilling to let go of the President as their point man in the war on terror. Gen. Kayani may pay heed. If this is true it affects President Musharraf’s decision to invoke 58-2(B), since no president can dissolve parliament without quiet consent from General Head Quarters.
1. Answer to your first question. The president will not invoke 58-2(B) because army doesn’t want to be embroiled in another political impasse. It has its hands full in NWFP. Yes NWFP and not only FATA regions. Almost half of the province is under the Taliban’s control including settled areas of Hangu, Swat and importantly Bara which lies on the ouskirts of Pesawar.
2. To your second question. If the impeachment goes ahead it will be constitutional and cannot be challeneged in the supreme court if it is passed with 2/3rd majority. If that 2/3rd majority doesn’t violate the constitution then it cannot be challeneged in the supreme court whether that court is filled with kangroos or judges. There is no telling the difference between them.
3. Answer to your 3rd question is maybe and will remain so for some time. The ISI will get busy buying votes for Musharraf and in the past these votes have been bought for a couple of million ruppees. Its a bargain for politicans to vote on the other side for money or more so for hidding their skeleton filled closets. And believe me there are many skeletons.
4. Answer to your final question is that I think US backs the Pakistan Army and not one individual whether that is Mushurraf or Kiyani. Right now the army is behind Musharraf and will get the support of Washington.
Finally my analysis and predictions based on information from the Presidential camp is that this impeachmenet proccess will linger on for some time jus like the restoration of the judiciary lingered on and it will loose steam. Just like Aitezez Ahsan has been ridiculed by his own lawer’s community after taking his cause no where, Zardari will also loose credibility of his own PPP. And he will be replaced by Amin Fahim backed by the remenants of the Bhutto family.
Pakistan Zindabad. Pak Fauj Paindabad.